Prediction Vault

Every claim is pre-committed before the outcome is known. Verdicts are sealed by reality, not the author.

When the deadline passes, predictions become verdicts. → View verdict wall

4 predictions · 0 resolved · no verdict yet

Pending

  • pending Building in Public #

    The site will have at least 10 published posts with active (non-entombed) status by end of 2026.

    Criteria
    Count posts in src/content/blog/ with pubDate <= 2026-12-31 and decay factor < 0.95. Must reach 10 or more.
    Deadline
    Dec 31, 2026
  • pending Building in Public #

    Building in public will surface at least one substantive reader contribution (bug report, idea, or collaboration offer) within the first year.

    Criteria
    Any external contact (email, social, GitHub issue, or linked post) that directly references reading this blog and offers something actionable. Author confirms receipt.
    Deadline
    Apr 4, 2027
  • pending The Decay Theory #

    Posts with revival rates above the median will outlast their nominal lifespan by at least 50%.

    Criteria
    Check the revivals.db for any post that has exceeded its lifespan date by 50% or more while still alive (decay factor < 0.95). At least one such post must exist.
    Deadline
    Apr 4, 2027
  • pending The Decay Theory #

    At least one reader will explicitly cite the decay mechanic as their reason for keeping a post alive.

    Criteria
    A reader message, comment, or public post (linked or screenshotted) that names the decay clock as the reason they clicked Keep. Author or reader can surface the evidence.
    Deadline
    Jan 1, 2027